Risk of Ruin Calculator | UltraTrader AI

Win rate

Reward-to-risk

Risk per trade

Number of trades

Ruin level

Drop from the starting balance that counts as ruin, e.g. your prop firm's max loss.

Risk of ruin

6.5%

chance of losing 30% within 500 trades

In 6.5% of 5,000 simulated runs the account fell 30% below its start within 500 trades, despite a positive edge of +0.13R per trade.

Median ending balance: 299% of start
Runs ending below start: 7%
Median worst drawdown: 29.7%
Median longest losing streak: 9 trades

UltraTrader AI tracks your real win rate, average reward-to-risk and max drawdown from the trades you import, the numbers this simulation runs on.

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Simulated estimates based only on the numbers you enter. Real results depend on whether your win rate and reward-to-risk hold up. This is not financial advice.