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Breakeven Win Rate Calculator

Find the win rate your reward-to-risk needs before a setup makes money, with costs included. The result updates as you type.

Risk per trade

Reward per trade

Costs per trade

Your win rate

Breakeven win rate

35%

at 2 : 1 reward-to-risk, after costs

Your win rate is 5 points above breakeven, so on these numbers the setup makes money.

Your win rate: 40%
Margin: +5 pts
Breakeven before costs: 33.3%
Costs as share of risk: 5%

UltraTrader AI tracks your real win rate and average reward-to-risk from the trades you import, so you can see which side of breakeven you're on.

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Hypothetical results based only on the numbers you enter. Past results don't predict future trades. This is not financial advice.

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Breakeven win rate by reward-to-risk

Uses your risk and costs from the calculator. The highlighted row is your setup.

Reward : risk	Breakeven win rate
0.5 : 1	70%
1 : 1	52.5%
1.5 : 1	42%
2 : 1	35%
2.5 : 1	30%
3 : 1	26.3%
4 : 1	21%
5 : 1	17.5%

How the breakeven formula works

A setup breaks even when the money from winners exactly covers the money lost on losers. Costs come off every trade, winners and losers alike. Solving for the win rate gives:

Breakeven win rate = (Risk + Costs) ÷ (Reward + Risk)

The numbers loaded above are a hypothetical example: $100 at risk, a $200 target and $5 in costs per trade.

Risk plus costs: $100 + $5 = $105
Reward plus risk: $200 + $100 = $300
Breakeven: $105 ÷ $300 = 35%

Without the $5 of costs the same setup breaks even at 33.3%. Small costs matter most on tight stops, because they are a bigger share of the risk.

Profit starts above the line

Winning slightly more often than breakeven makes very little per trade, and normal losing streaks can hide the edge for months. The trading expectancy calculator shows how much each trade earns once you are above the line, and exit rules and risk management covers why planned and real reward-to-risk drift apart.

Breakeven win rate FAQ

What is a breakeven win rate?

It is the share of trades you need to win for a setup to make exactly zero over time. Win more often than that and the trades make money on average. Win less often and they lose money. It depends only on how big your wins are compared with your losses, plus costs.

How do you calculate the breakeven win rate?

Add your costs per trade to your risk, then divide by the sum of your reward and your risk. With $100 at risk, a $200 target and $5 in costs, that is (100 + 5) ÷ (200 + 100) = 35%. Without costs the formula is simply 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk).

What win rate do I need with a 1:2 risk-reward?

Before costs, a little over 33%: one win pays for two losses. Costs push it up. On a $100 risk, $5 of commission and spread per trade raises it to 35%.

Does a higher reward-to-risk always help?

It lowers the win rate you need, but a target further away is also reached less often, so your win rate usually drops too. What matters is whether your real win rate stays above the breakeven for your real reward-to-risk. Check both from your closed trades.

Why doesn't my real breakeven match the planned one?

Planned targets and stops are rarely what you get. Partial exits, moved stops and slippage change the average win and loss. Use the average win and average loss from your closed trades as reward and risk to see the breakeven you are trading at.