Trading Expectancy Calculator

Expectancy is the average amount you make or lose per trade over many trades. It combines how often you win with how big your wins and losses are: (win rate × average win) minus (loss rate × average loss), after costs. A positive number means the trades in your sample made money on average. A negative number means they lost money.

Take your win rate as a decimal and multiply it by your average win. Then multiply your loss rate (1 minus win rate) by your average loss. Subtract the second number from the first and deduct your average cost per trade. With a 45% win rate, a $300 average win, a $200 average loss and $10 in costs, that is 0.45 × $290 minus 0.55 × $210, or $15 per trade.

Any positive expectancy after costs means the sample was profitable. Dollar figures depend on position size, so compare strategies in R instead. Expectancy in R divides the dollar result by your average loss plus costs, which tells you how much you make per unit of risk. Higher is better, but a high number from a small sample can be luck.

Win rate alone tells you nothing about profit. A 70% win rate loses money if the average loss is three times the average win, and a 35% win rate can be profitable when winners are much larger than losers. Expectancy includes both, which is why the calculator also shows the breakeven win rate for your average win and loss.

Expectancy is the average result per trade, in money or R. Profit factor is total profit divided by total loss, so it is a ratio with no unit. Both use the same inputs. A profit factor above 1 always goes with a positive expectancy, but expectancy tells you how much each trade is worth.

The fewer trades in your sample, the more a few lucky or unlucky results move the number. Use one strategy at a time and as many closed trades as you have. Our guide on how many trades you need before judging a strategy covers sample size in detail.